Football Picks Against the Spread

Last week I went 8-5 ATS. Posted picks went 2-2 ATS. Although we fell victim to the Saints upset and missed on the Panthers pick, we got some of that back with the Bengals (-3) over the Seahawks and we hit our Monday Night play thanks to the Chiefs.

ATLANTA FALCONS (-7) @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

You have to be careful picking your spots when betting against home dogs (see the Saints last week). Are the Colts due for a win or at least a solid effort against the Falcons? Perhaps. But this is one the Falcons should win by double-digits. The Falcons got off to a slow start, but have turned the corner and are becoming the team that many people thought they could be coming into this season. The Falcons are coming off a bye week after they had two big wins in their previous games. They are coming off a big 31-17 win over the Panthers and a 23-16 win over the Lions. If the Falcons could hold the Panthers and Lions to 17 points or less, how many points do you think the Colts can score against them? The Colts are scoring just 15.1 PPG while surrendering 31.5 PPG. The Colts have given up a minimum of 23 points in every game this season. Based on stats, you’re thinking worst-case scenario, the Falcons win 24-17. Michael Turner should also have a big game against the Colts 31st-ranked run defense. That will help the Falcons sustain drives and put up a ton of points.

Prediction: Falcons 31 – Colts 13

Free Pick Against the Spread: Falcons -7 (Confidence: 4/5)

CINCINNATI BENGALS (+3) @ TENNESSEE TITANS

I’ve been a huge fan of the Bengals this year as they delivered …

Question: What team would you pick in week 9 for your survivor pool?

I am trying to decide between the Oakland Raiders over Denver Broncos, Houston Texans over Cleveland Browns, or Dallas Cowboys over Seattle Seahawks. Seahawks scare me since they beat the Giants in New York! Kansas City Chiefs over Miami Dolphins and Atlanta Falcons over Indianapolis Colts also seem like good picks, but you just have to feel that the Colts are Dolphins are due for that first win sooner or later. Thank you in advance for your help.

Answer:

The Raiders and Broncos is a toss up. When those teams face each other, there’s just no knowing what will happen. That game will probably be decided by a field goal and will end up giving you a heart attack.

The Texans over the Browns is a solid choice, I always love picking against the Browns.

Seattle already upset the Giants a booted a ton of teams out of my league so I won’t pick against them. Their defense is stepping up and Marshawn Lynch is getting hot.

I would steer clear of the Chiefs over the Dolphins since I don’t have a whole lot of confidence in the Chiefs.

The Falcons should have no problem beating the Colts. The Colts are in shambles in Peyton Manning out.

Take the Texans or the Falcons!

What do you think? Answer below!…

WEEK 8 SUMMARY

The posted picks went 1-2 ATS this week, but I dominated the pick ’em league with an 8-4 ATS record. I now sit in 8th among the 32 active teams with a 57-51 record ATS. Well played by The Vaidya Twist who now ranks 1st ahead of perenial favorites Deez Nuts and Mempis Gangstas. Although I missed on the Saints and Panthers picks, I made some of that back with my 4:00 pick thanks to an easy win with the Bengals (-3) over the Seahawks.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-3.5) @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Tonight’s Monday Night game is between AFC West rivals, Kansas City Chiefs and San Diego Chargers. When was the last time the Chiefs had a Monday Night home game? Oh that’s right, that was last year when the Chiefs upset the Chargers in the opening week 21-14 as 4-point dogs. The Kansas City crowd will be jacked up again for this one. King posted why he likes the Chiefs. He makes some compelling arguments.

For purposes of the pick ’em league, I’ll stick with the Chargers (-3.5). As far as my money is concerned, I will be passing on the game, as I don’t want to take the Chargers (-3.5) on the road on Monday Night. You know the rule: don’t bet against a home dog on Monday Night (unless Tom Brady is playing the Dolphins). I’m not sold on the Chiefs (+3.5), but if you tease the spread up to Chiefs (+10.5) with the over 37, it makes the game more interesting for me.

I have a bit of a gut feeling that this will be a high-scoring contest. Maybe it’s just wishful thinking since I have Philip Rivers, Ryan Matthews, and …

We have an AFC West showdown tonight as the San Diego Chargers travel to Kansas City to face off against the Chiefs.  Right now the current line has the Chargers giving Kansas City 3 points, while the over/under hasn’t moved much and sits at 44.5.

First glance has this game looking like blowout with the first place Chargers against the hapless Kansas City Chiefs.  The Chargers are currently at a 4-2 record, but some could say that they are the worst NFL division leader at the current time.  Their only games against good teams came on the road in New York against the Jets as well as in New England against the Pats.  Who have they beat? Well the Minnesota Vikings, Kansas City Chiefs (earlier this year by 3 points), Miami Dolphins, and the Denver Broncos.  None of those were even close to being impressive wins.

Let’s just say the start the Kansas City Chiefs had to the season is one to forget, losing by a combined score of 89-10 in their first two match-ups.  Things turned around though when they traveled to San Diego to face off against the Chargers, only losing by a field goal. Following that week, they rattled off three straight wins and with a win tonight will be tied for first place in the division, crazy to think about.

San Diego isn’t the same San Diego that we have been used to.  The Chiefs are hot and are going to be ready to go tonight playing at home on a Monday Night in a crazy packed stadium.

I have a source on a 17-5-0 ATS run currently who is on Kansas City tonight.

Prediction: Chargers 24 – Chiefs 28

Pick Against the Spread: Chiefs (+3) …

Last week we only posted two picks, Steelers (-3.5) over Cardinals and Packers (-9) over Vikings. We split those picks, hitting on the Steelers, but falling short on the Packers who came away with a 6-point win. I didn’t care for too many games on last week’s card since I saw most as toss ups. There’s a handful of games that I like this week. There are several games on the cusp of being posted such as DET (-3) @ DEN, NE (-3) @ PIT, WAS @ BUF (-6), CLE @ SF (-8.5), IND @ TEN (-9), JAC @ HOU (-9.5), but I’m just not completely sold yet. Here’s what I got for you so far.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-13) @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

The Saints demolished the Colts last week and I didn’t want to pick the game based on my notion that the Saints don’t do well against high spreads. WRONG. They beat the Colts 62-7. What is this? Boise State vs. Colorado State? The Rams will likely be without Sam Bradford and their starting left tackle and former 1st-round pick Jason Smith is also doubtful. If Bradford is out, I would be all over the Saints. The Rams offense is anemic, averaging just 9.8 PPG. I can’t see them scoring more than 10 points without Bradford. The Rams defense is also giving up an average of 28.5 PPG. There hasn’t been a better team to bet against this year, the Rams are 0-6 ATS.

Prediction: Saints 34 – Rams 10

Free Pick Against the Spread: Saints -13 (Confidence: 4/5)

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3.5)

I’m glad to see the Panthers get another win under their belts as they’re clearly playing better than their 2-5 record. They …

Question: Need Week 7 RB Start/Sit/Drop Help.

I’m in a PPR league and have 2 RB slots. I need help picking my RBs for Week 7.

This is a PPR league. 2 RB slots.

I currently have:
Chris Johnson (BYE)
Ryan Grant vs @ CLE
Laurence Maroney @ TB
Donald Brown @ STL

I planned on playing Ryan Grant and Laurence Maroney, but I just traded for Donald Brown. I picked up Maroney just to play him this week.

Willie Parker is also on the wire and he’ll be available tomorrow morning. I know he isn’t the primary RB for the Steelers, but if he start being the top guy again, he would be a good pickup.

I was considering dropping Maroney to try to pick up Parker, and playing Grant and Brown this week. What do you think?

Answer:

I would play Donald Brown and Ryan Grant this week. Willie Parker isn’t what he used to be so don’t bother trying to pick hum up off waivers. Mendenhall is Pittsburgh’s guy, Parker will ride the bench.

Give your answer to this question below!…

Question: Week 7 running back sit/start?

I have to start either James Starks or Mike Tolbert because of bye week. I also could pick up and play Ryan Torain, Knowshon Moreno, or LaDanian Tomlinson. I can’t know what to do. Help me out.

Best answer:

Monitor the Redskins RB situation Sunday morning. If Torain is announced as the starter, he’s the guy that you want to pick up. If Hightower starts then Torain could end up with single-digit touches, in which case go with the premier TD vulture, Mike Tolbert.

Add your own answer in the comments!…