Football Picks Against the Spread

We’ve put together back-to-back winning weeks in the NFL. In the last two weeks, we’ve posted a  5-2 ATS record. We’re looking to pull off a trifecta of winning weeks. I’ve got three picks for you this week and I’m liking them all, handing out 4/5 star picks like it’s Thanksgiving. Feel free to disagree, but we showed the haters last week who tried to call me out on my Chargers (-4) over Broncos and Bengals (+1) over Jaguars picks. This week I’m going with the Lions, Raiders, and Saints.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ DETROIT LIONS (-4)

I have been riding the Lions all year this season as I’ve been hyping them beyond belief the entire season. They’re 4-0-1 ATS. Why stop now? The Lions could very possibly have the best defensive line. Don’t think so? Name another. 11th in sacks, 4th in interceptions, 8th in forced fumbles, 12th in yards allowed, and 4th in points allowed. Does that sounds like the Detroit Lions to you? The 49ers have a very good defense too, no doubt about that. They’re 2nd in points allowed, 13th in yards allowed, and 5th against the rush, but you know what? They’re ranked 23rd against the pass, giving up 264.4 yards-per-game. And they’re facing some fella named Calvin Johnson and his 451 yards (90.9 YPG) and 9 TDs (1.8 TDs/Game).

I’m not overly impressed with the 49ers offense despite their dubious 28.4 PPG (ranked 7th in the NFL). Their yardage per game tells the true story (300 YPG ranked 27th in the NFL). They rely on the run where they’re ranked 12th to bail out their sorry passing game (ranked 27th). If there’s a team that can stop the run, it is the Lions who …

Question: Who should I start in the flex for week 5, Beanie Wells or Stevan Ridley?

Beanie Wells has been extremely productive so far, but I’m concerned with Beanie Wells lingering injury and he’s facing a touch Minnesota defense. Who would you go with and why? Stevan Ridley is playing against the Giants.

Best answer:

Definitely start Beanie Wells. I made the same mistake by sitting Wells last week. The reason I say you start him is because he gets the outright starting postion unlike Stevan Ridley, who just has a backup role on New England. Wells also said he he’s in tune with his offensive line. The Vikings may have a good defensive line, but so do the Giants. I expect Wells to put up good numbers this week.

What do you think? Answer below!…

I did a little bit of research online and found out a way to calculate predicted scores of these NFL games by the week. This system goes off of both teams’ points forced, points allowed, the points forced by all of their opponents thus far, and points allowed by all their opponents this season. You end up getting an offensive and defensive number that tells you whether or not they’re performing up with the league average in offense and defense, therefore spitting out a score for the game. These are what I got for Week 6 along with plays:

Cleveland Browns @ Oakland Raiders: Browns 18.68 – Raiders 30.98

St. Louis Rams @ Green Bay Packers: Rams 11.08 – Packers 40.07

Dallas Cowboys @ New England Patriots: Cowboys 26.01 – Patriots 34.75

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Jaguars 8.14 – Steelers 22.42

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons: Panthers 23.90 – Falcons 24.48

Indianapolis Colts @ Cincinnati Bengals: Colts 12.9o – Bengals 30.61

Buffalo Bills @ New York Giants: Bills 35.76 – Giants 26.76

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Saints 32.11 – Buccaneers 21.14

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins: Eagles 17.23 – Redskins 24.19

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens: Texans 16.14 – Ravens 27.87

San Francisco 49ers @ Detroit Lions: 49ers 22.34 – Lions 25.02

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears: Vikings 19.41 – Bears 21.68

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets: Dolphins 17.27 – Jets 27.87

Plays resulting from scores:

Raiders (-6) W

Packers (-14.5) W

Panthers (+5.5) L

Bengals (-7) *UPDATED LINE (-6) W

Bills (+3) P

Saints (-4.5) L

Redskins (+1) *UPDATED LINE (+3) L

Ravens (-6.5) W

4-3-1 overall — BIGGEST PLAY GREEN BAY WINNER

The score that produced that biggest difference from a Vegas …

I got knocked out of my Survivor Pool last week thanks to the New York Giants. About 75% of my league picked the Giants and 71% of voters in our poll also liked the Giants. The Giants ended up losing at home to the Seahawks in embarrassing fashion and nobody saw it coming.

The Giants had an opportunity to win the game with a few seconds left on the clock. With the ball just yards away from the endzone, Eli threw a pass off the hands of his receiver and into the hands of the Seahawks who took it to the house to end the game. There goes the survivor pool season. My second pick would have been the Pittsburgh Steelers over the Tennessee Titans, but I was trying to save them for week 6 against the Jaguars.

If you were lucky enough to avoid the Giants, I would take the Pittsburgh Steelers at home in week 6 of your survivor pool. Don’t count on he Jaguars to score much on one of the NFL’s best defenses. I already used the Packers over the Broncos, but if you haven’t pulled the trigger on the Packers yet, you have another great opportunity to take them at home against the Rams.

Now assuming both the Steelers and the Packers have been picked, who do you go with? I would take the New York Jets at home on Monday night over the struggling Miami Dophlins or the Oakland Raiders at home over the Cleveland Browns. Since you may want to save the Jets for another week, especially since they are in a division game against an opponent coming of their bye week, I would say go with the Oakland Raiders. This is …

A few people have emailed me asking what my pick is for tonight. I hate this game with the spread. I simply don’t see any value in taking the Lions -6.5. In order for me to take the Lions over the Bears, I would like the spread at nothing more than Lions -3.

As you know, I’ve been high on the Lions all season long. Before the season started, I went on record to say that the Lions will make the playoffs. If the Lions were in the NFC East, West, or South, they would quite possibly win the division. Unfortunately, the Packers are in their division preventing them from claiming the division title.

I see the Lions winning tonight’s game by 3-4 points and I’m not going to take the Bears on the road for the sake of taking points since the Lions do stand a strong chance of covering this spread. The Bears defense is too tough for the Lions to give up 6.5.

The over/under is set at a fair 47 points. It’s tough to tell whether you’ll get a shootout or a low-scoring game like these team’s contests last year. Last year these teams battled it out in a 24-20 game and a 19-14 game. The Bears won both games, but we all know that Calvin Johnson catch that TD pass with 0 seconds left that should have given the Lions the victory in the first game.

I don’t like the spread so what I will do is recommend a teaser of Lions +1 and over 40 for tonight’s game.

Prediction: Lions 24 – Bears 20

Pick Against the Spread: Lions +1, Over 40 (Confidence: 3/5)…

We followed up a 2-1 ATS week in week 4 with a 3-1 ATS week in week 5. To the comment trolls, STFU! I hit on my Patriots teaser with the over, as well as my Chargers and Bengals pick. My only miss was on the Giants.

My Top 4 Week 5 Plays:

1.) Patriots (-2.5/Over 42)

2.) Chargers (-4)

3.) Bengals (+1.5)

4.) Giants (-9.5)

Comment: LMAO DUDE, DUDE, DUDE. You are AS square as they come I personally guarantee a Broncos cover and the Jags will most likely cover their spread. What a joke of a site

Chargers 29 – Broncos 24

Bengals 30 – Jaguars 20

What’s up?…

Some interesting stats through week 4 of the NFL.

Which teams has gained the most yards?

New England Patriots (507.5 yard per game)

Which team has gained the least yards?

Seattle Seahawks (254 yards per game)

Which team has given up the most yards?

New England Patriots (368.8 yards per game)

Which team has given up the least yards?

Pittsburgh Steelers (157.5 yards per game)

Which team has allowed the most 40+ yard passing plays? 

Miami Dolphins (6)

Which team has allowed the least 40+ yard passing plays? 

Tennessee Titans (0), Dallas Cowboys (0), and Pittsburgh Steelers (0)

Which team has allowed the most 20+ yard passing plays?

New England Patriots (30)

Which team has allowed the least 20+ yard passing plays?

Pittsburgh Steelers (7)

Which team has the most sacks?

Washington Redskins (15) and Philadelphia Eagles (15)

Which team has the least sacks?

Buffalo Bills (5)

Which team has the most interceptions?

Buffalo Bills (8) and Green Bay Packers (8)

Which team has the least interceptions?

Pittsburgh Steelers (0)

Which team has the most 1st downs?

New England Patriots (27.5 per game)

Which team has the least 1st downs?

Kansas City Chiefs (13.2 per game)

Which defense has allows the most 1st downs?

Oakland Raiders (27.2 per game)

Which defense has allows the least 1st downs?

Pittsburgh Steelers (14 per game)

Which team is the best in 3rd down conversions?

San Diego Chargers (58%)

Which teams is the worst in 3rd-down conversions?

Miami Dolphins (36%)

Which defense is best in 3rd-down stops?

New Yorks Jets (74%) and Washington Redskins (74%)

Which defense is the worst in 3rd-down stops?

New England Patriots (52%) and Indianapolis Colts (52%)…