Football Picks Against the Spread

I missed on the picks yesterday. Like I said, this week looks incredibly tough to predict. I was hoping to see a Peyton Manning vs. Aaron Rodgers Super Bowl. I think that’s the dream matchup all of us wanted to see this year. After last night, that’s out of the picture. I should have kept the Broncos (-2.5)/Patriots (-2.5) teaser alive, but the 70-yard bomb with 36 seconds left killed that ticket. How do you give up that play as a defense? I feel bad for Peyton. He wins 11 straight games, puts together a 13-3 season, secures home field advantage, and his defense blows the season in one play. If the Ravens are going to advance, they better win the AFC Championship next week. I do love the Ray Lewis story. Let’s get to Sunday’s picks.

Seattle Seahawks (+3) over ATLANTA FALCONS

I’m really torn here. I can see this game going either way. The Falcons are at home where Matt Ryan has been outstanding throughout his career, a 33-6 record and 8-0 this season.  The Seahawks have been downright dangerous the last month of the season. The Seahawks could very well have the league’s best defense with a lethal combination of a strong pass rush from their entire front seven and the biggest and most physical secondary in the NFL. However, Chris Clemons, their top pass rusher is out for the season after tearing his ACL last week.

The Seahawks still have the edge defensively over the Falcons and have the better running game with BEAST MODE Marshawn “PutDaTeamOnMyBack” Lynch. I have faith in the Seahawks corners to contain Roddy White and Julio Jones while the front seven limits the Falcons run game. In the playoffs, it’s …

It is the NFL Divisional Round and the pick ’em league remains in a dog fight. I’m tied in 1st with two other teams. Last week my picks went 3-1 ATS. I was pulling for the Redskins and should have went with my head which was telling me the Seahawks would win.  This week is a much tougher week. I don’t like the lines as much as I did last week, so I’m not going to go as large as I did last week. On Saturday, I’m going with the MVP QBs — Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers.

DENVER BRONCOS (-9.5) over Baltimore Ravens

I’m very confident that Peyton Manning will get the W, but it’s a steep spread against the Ravens defense. I’m expecting a lower-scoring game this time around. Last week no team scored more than 24 points. The defenses have dominated, the weather has been cold, and the scores have been low. I would tease this spread to Broncos (-2.5) with Patriots (-2.5) before taking Broncos (-9.5). You can also tease the over/under from 45 to 52 to take Denver (-2.5)/Under 52.

Broncos have won 11 straight and beat the Ravens 34-17 on December 16th, but this game will be very different from that December 16th contest. The bottom line for me is Peyton Manning vs. Joe Flacco, who would you rather bet on? I’ll take Peyton Manning at home minus the chalk. Joe Flacco will have a tough time against the Broncos defense and will be constantly be pressured by Dumervil and Von Miller. Flacco sucks on the road and has yet to win a big game. However, the cold weather could keep the score low and give the Ravens a chance to cover the +9.5 …

On Saturday, we hit both of our picks. We took the Texans and changed our pick from Vikings (+9.5) to Pakcers (-9.5) at around 6:30 once the word was released the Christian Ponder was out and Joe Webb was in. THE PASS RUSH pick ’em league is in a dog fight with four teams tied in first place with 9 games left to pick.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-6.5) over Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are coming into this matchup in Baltimore with the momentum. The Colts are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last 6 and 8-2 SU and ATS in their last 10. The Ravens are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five games. That’s the reason that 63% of the public is taking the Colts (+7).

I was going to go into the cliche that the Ravens are such a strong team at home, but they’re a surprising 3-5 ATS at home (6-2 SU). The Colts are 4-4 SU and ATS on the road this season. The Ravens have had to top huge lines at home though, the 6-2 home record tells the real story. The Colts have been a great story this year, but their Luck should run out today.

First, we have the return of Ray Lewis who is playing the last home game of his career. The Ravens defense will be playing with extra motivation and determination for Ray. Just like the Colts got a boost last week with the return of Chuck Pagano, the Ravens should be the beneficiary of the emotional boost from Ray Lewis’s last home game.

Like I discussed with the Texans yesterday, they played poorly in December and showed up yesterday to take care of business. I believe the Ravens did …

In Week 17, our picks went 10-6 ATS and yours truly (131-120 ATS for the season) is ready to move into lead against the pick ’em league leader Beantown Brawlers (133-118 ATS). I’m currently in 2nd in the pick ’em league, 2 games behind the leader, with 11 games to play. Hopefully, you were able to build up your bank roll with some of Brandon’s Bowl Picks. Oregon and Texas A&M were two easy winners as well in the last two days. Here is what we have on tap for NFL Wildcard Saturday.

HOUSTON TEXANS (-4) over Cincinnati Bengals

I like the Texans here. The public is split here 50/50. The line moved from Texans (-4.5) to Texans (-4).

I don’t have a whole lot of conviction with the Texans since the Texans December performance has been poor, but keep in mind that they already locked up a playoff spot by that time and likely just slacked off the month of December.  A lot of players on their team were pretty banged up so I’m sure that their players who were nursing injuries were only playing at a 75% level. Houston finished the season 1-3 SU and ATS.

The Bengals have been on fire lately with a 7-1 record SU and ATS in their last 8.  Remember that these teams faced each other in the playoffs last year and the Texans wiped the floor with them winning 31-10. Houston was a 4-point favorite in that game as well. Andy Dalton thew 3 INTs and 0 TDs. A.J. Green was targeted 12 times and had just 5 catches for 47 yards. The Bengals were held to a mere 76 rushing yards a well. T.J. Yates was also the QB for …

It’s the last week of NFL regular season action. I’m not too crazy about any individual games. Week 17 can be unpredictable when teams don’t have anything to play for except pride. I think the strategy this week is to utilize teasers on teams that are big favorites and are playing for playoff position. Broncos (-9), Patriots (-3.5), Seahawks (-3.5), 49ers (-9.5), and Texans are all games which I like with the line teased down. The Saints and Steelers are two individual spreads that I think are worth taking. Good luck this week and when you bet on SuperBowl.

Baltimore Ravens (+1) over CINCINNATI BENGALS — Both teams are in the playoffs and the playoff seeds are pretty much set. You don’t know what kind of effort you’ll get from the teams when playoff position has pretty much been determined. The Bengals are locked in the 6th seed and the Ravens aren’t able to play for a 1st-round bye.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS over Cleveland Browns — No line is released but I really like the Steelers in this one. Trent Richardson and Brandon Weeden are out. Neither team has anything to play for but pride.I’ll take Steelers anything less than a touchdown.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+7) over Houston Texans — This is a tough one as the Colts locked up a wild card and will be playing on the road in the playoffs regardless of the outcome here. The Texans are playing for home-field advantage. If the Texans lose, the Patriots or Broncos could secure home-field advantage in the playoffs. I believe that the Colts will give a solid effort and try to win this game to enter the playoffs with momentum. The Texans should win this game and I would …

General rules for bowl game predictions. Rule 1: Almost always bet the underdogs. You can go back something like 26 years and if you would have blindly bet all bowl game underdogs you would have had a profitable bowl season every year. Currently, favorites are 3-2 against the spread so far this bowl season. Rule 2: Strongly consider betting the better rushing team. This comes down to a simple timing thing. Its easy to run the ball than throw it. Most teams have several weeks off between games and most of the time it takes passing offensives a little longer to get rolling in bowl games simply because they need to get their timing back. Rule 3: Strongly consider betting the better defensive team. You will have to do you homework in to follow this rule because many of the teams playing have never played each other, come from different conferences, and the stats can be misleading.

Western Kentucky (-6.5) vs. Central Michigan: In general, I tend to fade the MAC in bowl games as they have performed terrible over the past few years. After looking at CMU, there isn’t much to be impressed by here despite winning their last three games of the year to become bowl eligble. Their defense has given up almost 200 yards rushing per game, which is terrible considering they play in the MAC. WKU’S rushing attack is strong averaging 186 yards per game. With the new coach for the bowl game, I expect him to stick with the bread and butter and keep the ball on the ground with a huge dosage of running plays. WKU’s coach for the bowl game has had previous experience stepping in for coaches that bolted prior to the …

We are back with our weekly picks against the spread. Sorry for missing last week, I was out of town. I’ll be in touch with Brandon to see if he’s working on his COLLEGE BOWL SPECIAL. During the last BOWL SPECIAL, Brandon was 10-3 ATS. You’ll definitely want to check his picks out when they hit the wire. We’re still a few weeks away from Bowl Season, but we have some NFL action this week and the battle for playoff contention is heating up. During this time of year, I like to pick teams that have something left to play for against those that don’t. For example, Redskins over Browns and Seahawks over Bills. Both teams are road favorites, but I like them this week.

Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES — I’m an Eagles fan and the BOO birds are out. The Eagles snapped an 8-game losing streak stifling the Bucs in Tampa last week, but I’ve been so fed up with them this year that I just expect them to lose out the rest of the year.

Green Bay Packers (-3) over CHICAGO BEARS — Packers are 4-0 ATS against the Bears. I was tempted to take the home dog, but I gotta go Packers here. They just have the Bears number.

New York Giants (-1) over ATLANTA FALCONS — The Falcons have cooled off. 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games. Giants recently laid the smack down on the Saints and Packers and look like they’re running on all cylinders.

Minnesota Vikings (+1) over ST. LOUIS RAMS — The Rams defense has been solid over the last few weeks, but A.P. has just been running wild and the Vikings are still in playoff contention.  What would keep …