Football Picks Against the Spread

Question:

Should I start Ryan Fitzpatrick or Matt Schaub. I need a win bad.

Answer:

This one is a no-brainer. Matt Schaub is facing the Jacksonville Jaguars, whose defense is ranked 26th in the NFL and giving up 27.3 PPG. Ryan Fitzpatrick has a matchup against a solid Miami Dolphins defensive unit that gives up just 20.7 PPG. The Texans will have far more opportunities to score than the Bills do this week. The only downside will be if Arian Foster takes most of those touchdowns.…

Coming off our strongest week of the year going 4-1 ats. I see several “spot” plays this week that should be good spots to exploit some bad lines.

1. TEXAS A&M (+13.5) vs. Alabama: This is purely a spot play. Alabama comes off the huge emotional win last week over LSU. A&M is playing great football right now and has all year. Their only two losses came against Florida, during Week 2, and to LSU. I don’t think A&M can pull the upset, but they couldn’t be playing much better. A&M catches Alabama in a perfect spot, which will hopefully lead to an exciting close game. Take the points with A&M for 1 unit.

2. MISSISSIPPI STATE (+15) vs LSU: Again, spot play. Miss St comes off two embarrasing losses after starting the season 7-0. Clearly Miss St benefited from an early weak schedule. Miss St. is a good football team, but they cannot match talent with LSU. However, LSU comes off one of the toughest losses you will see all year. The loss to Bama also eliminates any national title hopes they still had. LSU is used to playing for national titles and you have to wonder where this team is mentally since they don’t have a whole lot to play for now. I look for Miss St to play their best game of the year. I think this should be a very low scoring affair so take the points with Miss St. for 1 unit.

3. Colorado at ARIZONA (-29): I was all over UCLA last week in a spot play against Arizona and I was dead on as UCLA won 66-10. However, I expected Az to play terrible and they did just that; clearly they had not …

Last week was a solid week with a 8-1 ATS record after the 1:00 games and a 11-3 ATS record to finish the week. November has historically been my strong month, which makes the rest of the month very exciting. Last week was a good week for the favorites and this week looks like another week for the favorites. My favorite teaser play this week is Patriots (-4)/49ers (-4). Both teams are at home against weak opponents. The same teaser hit for me last week. Broncos, Lions, and Cowboys are my top road favorites.

Indianapolis Colts (-3) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS — Confidence: 7/10 — I look to bet against the Jaguars nearly every week. My only concern as that while Andrew Luck has been phenomenal at home, he’s struggled on the road. However, the Jags are just awful and the Colts should easily win this one.

Denver Broncos (-3.5) over CAROLINA PANTHERS — Confidence: 7/10 — Peyton Manning is at the top of his game. If he could pick apart a Bengals defense on the road, he should have no problems finding holes in the Panthers poor defense. I’m confident that he’ll be able to pull off back-to-back road wins.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-3) over San Diego Chargers — Confidence: 7/10 — The Bucs have been red hot over the last four weeks as their offense is producing huge numbers thanks to Doug Martin, Mike Williams, and Vincent Jackson. They’ve had a fairly soft schedule in that stretch, so I’m looking forward to how they’ll perform against a team the caliber of the Chargers.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (-6) over Tennessee Titans — Confidence: 6/10 — I’m not crazy about laying the points to take Miami, but they’ve been solid on both …

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Love weeks like this. 8-1 ATS on Sunday. Hit on my Packers/Texans teaser, Lions, and Broncos. Brandon went 4-1 ATS on Saturday. November is typically our month for domination. No big deal.

I’m the man, little did they know….

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1. Penn State at Purdue (+3.5). Purdue comes off two tough losses. However this team is pretty fundamentally strong and it should be focused today.  The line for the game has slowly been coming down in favor of Purdue. Penn State still has many issues on both sides of the ball.  Ohio State took advantage of many of their weaknesses and Purdue could do the same. It remains tough to win on the road in the Big Ten. Purdue wins outright. Play on Purdue 2 units.

2. Kansas at Baylor (-17).  Kansas comes off a very emotional loss to Texas. They were leading with just seconds to play and Texas pulled out the dramatic comeback. If my memory serves me right Kansas has not won a conference game in quite a a while. Tough spot for Kansas now having to play on the road. Baylor has not played as well as of late but they clearly are the better team here. Baylor will pose many offensive problems for the Kansas defense. Baylor needs to take advantage early and the game could be over by halftime. Play on Baylor for 2 units.

3. Arizona at UCLA (-3). If you have been reading my write ups this year you probably could have expected me to play UCLA today. Arizona played the game of their lives last week and you can bet they were celebrating that big win all week. Overall I think this game should be pretty evenly matched. However this is purely a spot play against Arizona. Additionally  UCLA is playing great football right now and will be very aggressive in their game plan. Play on UCLA for 1 unit.

4. New Mexico vs. UNLV (-3.5). I know that these two …

My week 8 was solid. I hit my top play in a teaser with the Patriots/49ers. It was an easy winner. Overall, our picks went 7-7 ATS. Let’s take a look into what week 9 has in store. I’m not crazy about any particular spread as I’ll come out merely recommending a teaser with Chargers (-1)/Packers (-3) and Packers (-3)/Texans (-3). A few road favorites like the Lions (-3.5) or Broncos (-3.5) also look tempting.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-8) over Kansas City Chiefs — Confidence: 6/10 — When these teams faced each other earlier this season, the Chargers absolutely dominated the Chiefs in Kansas City. Now the game will be played in San Diego. Based on the previous game, most people would be confident laying the points and taking the Chargers at home. However, I’m not so impressed with this Chargers team that has lost three straight games (@ NO, vs. DEN, @ CLE). Most division games will be close. However, the Chiefs are in shambles and will likely get destroyed just like their previous contest. Teasing this spread down to Chargers (-1) to pair with another game looks like the choice to make in this one.

Carolina Panthers (+3) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS — Confidence: 6/10 — What a game this will be when Cam Newton squares off against Robert Griffin III. Newton continues to suffer heartache after heartache as his defense lets him down every single week. If the weather clears up, this looks to be a shootout as both teams are at the mercy of their defenses. I believe the Panthers losing streak comes to an end this week as Cam will get the victory.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-10) over Arizona Cardinals — Confidence: 6/10 — The Packers …