Football Picks Against the Spread

Last week our picks went 8-5 ATS. If not for a half-point miss by the Bears due a late garbage TD, it could have put us at 9-4 ATS and made for a very strong week. There’s plenty of games to dissect this week and lots of opportunities to tease lines to where I like them. Patriots/49ers looks like a solid teaser, as well as Redskins (+11.5)/Under 53 @ Pittsburgh where it should be raining on Sunday.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-14.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars — Confidence: 7/10 — I’m going to avoid this game due to the high spread, but I’ll have to take the Packers here with the Jags non-existent offense and Maurice Jones-Drew out. I don’t see how the Jags score 10 points, while the Packers should easily put up 24+. Packers (-7.5) may be worth throwing into a teaser as the Packers should have that cover wrapped up easily by the 3rd quarter.

NEW YORK JETS (-1) over Miami Dolphins — Confidence: 7/10 — The Jets bested the Dolphins earlier this season in Miami. It was a tight game. The Jets have been playing better football over the last three weeks, nearly beating the Patriots on the road last week, destroying the Colts at home, and hanging in there with the Texans. I like the Jets to take this one at home.

San Diego Chargers (-3) over CLEVELAND BROWNS — Confidence: 6/10 — I have to take the Chargers here, but this is potentially a trap game. Vegas has been giving the Browns lines that indicates that they believe they are a much stronger team than their 1-6 SU record indicates. The Browns are 3-3-1 ATS. Their first win came via a 34-24 home win over the …

Week 9 shapes up with a lot of interesting plays. Making my first lock of the year bet and several other solid plays.

SMART BET LOCK: BYU vs GEORGIA TECH UNDER 50.5. Several reasons to love this play. First, BYU travels cross country for the second time in as many weeks, which should hurt their overall level of play. Second, BYU’s offensive line is really beat up after several key injuries continue to mount against them, Including the key loss of their center. Thridly, BYU’s strongest asset, their Defense I believe ranked 6th in country against the run, will square off against the one dimensional rushing attack of GT. Finally, this is a meaningless game for both teams, so a good reason they could come out completely flat. This is also GT’s break from the ACC schedule so there really isn’t a lot for them to get excited about here. I love the under here for a strong 2 unit play.

Ohio State (PK) over Penn State: Admittedly, PSU has played better than anyone really expected. You have to respect the effort and coaching of this team. To me though, there are way to many flaws in the PSU line-up when compared straight-up against OSU. OSU cannot be happy with the way they played the last couple of weeks. I expect a really focused squad here on the road. I still believe OSU has one goal and that is to go undefeated the rest of the way. Honestly, I don’t see anyone on the rest of their schedule that can beat them. I am calling for a blowout by early thrid quarter. PLAY ON OHIO STATE for 2 units.

Florida at GEORGIA (+6.5): Admittedly, Florida has looked progressively better with …

It was a pretty solid week for me in week 7.  I was 8-5 ATS, with a very solid 1:00 going 6-2 ATS to start off Sunday strong. The Bears missed covering by a half point on Monday Night, which could have been the icing on the cake had they covered. The Vikings (-6.5) was my top play in week 7 and put me ahead nicely for the week. We start off Thursday Night Football with the very same team that came through for me in the clutch in week 7.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-5.5)

I’m loving the Vikings this year. They made me some money last week as they were my top pick — hence, the Percy Harvin image on the week 7 picks against the spread. The Vikings are now 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games and 3-1 ATS at home.

The Bucs put up a hell of a fight against the Saints last week and nearly tied the game as time expired, but a penalty was called when a WR stepped out of the endzone and then came back into the endzone to catch a TD pass from Josh Freeman. The penalty whiped out the game-tying play and ended the game. Tough loss for the Bucs. The good news for the Bucs though is that their offense is starting to click and that could mean trouble for the Vikings tonight.

I thought the public would be favoring the Vikings in this one, but that’s not the case as 58% of the public likes the Bucs to cover. I’m expecting a tight game and would not recommend laying the points. I would consider taking the points, but I like the Vikings to win …

We got back on the right track on Thursday with our picks. No matter which way you sliced it, they were all winners. We called the under 37.5, Seahawks (+8), and teaser of 49ers (-1)/Under 44.5 or Seahawks (+15)/Under 44.5. Let’s see what we can take down on Sunday. There are not too many spreads that I love this week, we just have a handful of picks that I would rate a 6 or 7 out of 10. Games not ranked by confidence but by time.

BUFFALO BILLS (-3) over Tennessee Titans — Confidence: 6/10 — I can see this game going either way, but I’ll lean Bills since the Titans just have not played well at all on the road. Titans are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-6.5) over Arizona Cardinals — Confidence: 7/10 — I like the Vikings here who have played excellent football at home. They upset the 49ers at home at beat the Titans 30-7. You’ve heard me bash the Cardinals offense before, who stand to struggle against the Vikings defense this week. Last year, these teams played in Minnesota and the Vikings came out on top 34-10.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-2) over Cleveland Browns — Confidence: 6/10 — I’ll go with the Colts at home. The one downside to this pick is the Colts run D. Will they have an answer for Trent Richardson or will they be able to contain him? Maurice Jones-Drew destroyed the Colts, as did Shonn Greene. Before jumping on the Colts, you’ll have to think long and hard about the Trent Richardson vs. Colts run defense matchup.

Baltimore Ravens (+7) over HOUSTON TEXANS — Confidence: 6/10 — How will the Ravens be able to bounce back …

What a wild week it was in Week 6. Tons of upsets and a very good week for the dogs. I took Ravens (-3) as my top play and missed  by a point when the Cowboys scored a touchdown in the last two minutes when the Ravens were holding an 8-point lead. The most significant upset last week was the Seahawks topping the Patriots in Seattle after scoring a TD in the last two minutes thanks to Russell Wilson chucking the deep ball to Sidney Rice who outright beat his man. The only upsets I can take pride in nailing were the Browns over Bengals, Giants over the 49ers, and Bills over Cardinals.

SEATTLE SEAHAKWS (+8) @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

The NFC West is up for grabs tonight. The public is pretty much split on this one 50/50. I like taking the points as Seattle’s D is the real deal and should keep the game close. The Seahawks D is ranked 2nd in points allowed with a stingy 15.5 PPG and 4th in yards allowed. They’ve faced some strong offenses to boot — Green Bay, Dallas, New England, and Carolina.

San Fran’s offense looked terrible last week against the Giants. However, they’ve put up some solid offensive performances on occasion (vs. Bills, @ Jets, @ Packers). I think the 49ers have their struggles against the Seahawks defense. However, they may go off playing at home. The risk in taking the Seahawks is if the 49ers defense absolutely dominates this game. The 49ers gave up 3 points to the Bills and 0 points the Jets. They can be lights out.

The trends favor San Fran in this one: Seahawks are 2-5 ATS in San Fran in the last 7, the home …

If you’ve made it to week 7 in your survivor pool, you may be at a crossroads trying to select a survivor pool this week. Let’s go over which picks we’ve already taken and see which games we can look at.  Here’s a summary of the survivor pool picks:

Week 1 – Houston Texans over Miami Dolphins
Week 2 – Cincinnati Bengals over Cleveland Browns
Week 3 – Chicago Bears over St. Louis Rams
Week 4 – Baltimore Ravens over Cleveland Browns
Week 5 – New York Giants over Cleveland Browns
Week 6 — Atlanta Falcons over Oakland Raiders

This week, the biggest favorite is the New England Patriots (-10.5) over the New York Jets. I think you go with the Patriots in this spot. They’re at home and due for a bounce-back game after getting upset in Seattle last week. Your other option is the Minnesota Vikings over the Arizona Cardinals. The Vikings have played great football at home and should come out on top. The Cardinals don’t have much of an offense. I’m just not sure if I can trust my survivor pool pick on the Vikings, who are up against a very strong defense. The safe pick should be the Patriots at home, but if you’ve already taken the Patriots in your survivor pool and managed to survive, then my second favorite survivor pool pick would be the Minnesota Vikings over the Arizona Cardinals.

Week 7 Survivor Pool Pick: New England Patriots over New York Jets…

Some quick week 7 college football picks against the spread as I’m ready to jet out of here. Updates to picks may follow.

1. Ohio State (-17) over INDIANA: Indiana is coming off a tough loss to Michigan State. Indiana played as good as they possibly could that game, but fell short. After taking a 27-14 lead into the half, they failed to score a single point in the 2nd half and lost 31-27. I think you see Ohio State come in here and crush Indiana as last week’s tough loss sets up a hangover game for Indiana where I see them coming out flat. Ohio State is coming off a 63-28 win over Nebraska and is rolling right now.

2. Alabama (-21) over MISSOURI: With all of the injuries to Missouri, especially to their QB James Franklin, Alabama looks like the play.

3.  Syracuse (+7.5) over RUTGERS: Good value play as Syracuse is a better football team than their record indicates and Rutgers is a bit overrated.

4. PITTSBURGH (+3) over Lousiville: This is the third straight road game for Louisville, but at least they’re coming off a bye week. It’s tough for any team to win three straight road games, so I see this as a good spot to take Pittsburgh with the 3 points. Pitt has won the last 4 matchups against Louisville.

5. NOTRE DAME (-7) over Stanford : I’m going to keep riding Notre Dame until proven otherwise. They’re 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS, and they have the best defense in college football. They’ve made me good money this year.…