Football Picks Against the Spread

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS (+2)

I’m taking the Rams tonight. This is solely a situtional play for me here. 60% of the public likes the Cardinals. The Rams are at home twice in a row where they start the season 2-0. They found a win over the Seahawks and beat the Redskins at home thus far this year. The Cardinals aren’t going 16-0 and they should have lost to the Dolphins last week. I’m smelling a let-down game in the air for the Cards tonight.

Tannehill looked like the second coming of Dan Marino (absent the interceptions) by passing for over 400 yards last week. The Cardinals have played at home twice in a row and now have to travel to St. Louis on a short week to take on a Rams team that has looked solid thus far at home. Although the Rams topped the Seahawks last week, their lone touchdown came from a fake field goal. The rest of their points were on 4 field goals. The Seahawks have a strong defense though, so it’s no surprise that the Rams were stymied offensively last week.

What was impressive was the job that the Rams defense did against the Seahawks.  Picking off Russell Wilson three times, holding him to 160 yards, and allowing just 2-of-9 third-down conversions. The Rams defense has improved and Bradford has had two really strong games against the Lions and Redskins. Bradford is a much better quarterback than Kevin Kolb, which is another reason I’ll stick with the Rams at home. Kolb was sacked 8 times and he threw 2 INTs last week.

As I said before, the Rams looks like the play here solely as a situation play — they’re at home …

The survivor pool that I am in is already down to 3 teams from 50. There was a flury of upsets in week 3 — Chiefs beat Saints, Raiders beat Steelers, and Titans beat Lions. Hopefully, you went with Bears over Rams in week 3. Our week 4 survivor pool pick was Ravens over Browns. Let’s recap which teams are out for us:

Week 1 – Houston Texans over Miami Dolphins
Week 2 – Cincinnati Bengals over Cleveland Browns
Week 3 – Chicago Bears over St. Louis Rams
Week 4 – Baltimore Ravens over Cleveland Browns

There are a few games to choose from in week 5. As you can see, my favorite strategy for survivor pools is to take whatever team is playing the Cleveland Browns. This week that’s the New York Giants. I’m always hesitant to pick the Giants since they ended my 2011 survivor pool after getting upset by the visiting Seattle Seahawks. The Giants simply tend to not play up to their full potential against weaker opponents.

Other options for you to choose from are the Green Bay Packers over Indianapolis Colts, but the Packers are on the road this week. The last option that I see is the San Francisco 49ers at home over the Buffalo Bills.

I don’t think you can miss with either the Giants, Packers, or 49ers, it’s simply a matter of personal choice. If we look ahead to future weeks, Atlanta Falcons over Oakland Raiders in week 6 seems like the pick. In week 7, you’ll like want to take the 49ers at home over the Seahawks. In week 8, you with the Green Bay Packers at home over the Jaguars.

Since I am trying to save the 49ers and Packers …

It was a wild Sunday for me. After being thunderstruck by home dogs this year, I took a pledge from taking a week off from betting against any home dogs. In doing so, I passed on some spreads that I really wanted to take such as Patriots (-4) over Bills, 49ers (-4) over Jets, and Bengals (-2.5) over Jaguars. The home dog didn’t get there way in those games and they were all easy winners.

Instead, I tried to identify the strongest home teams and took the Falcons and Cardinals. I lost those two plays against the spread, but I decided to hedge my bets by teasing those spreads down so the spread wasn’t a factor. I hit my teasers and ended up Sunday in positive territory after going 3-for-3 on Saturday thanks to Brandon’s two picks and Texas over Oklahoma State. I managed to hit my teasers thanks to a last-second field goal in the Falcons game and an overtime win in the Cardinals game, which proves that it’s better to be lucky than good. Let’s get into Monday Night’s game.

CHICAGO BEARS (+3.5) @ DALLAS COWBOYS

Dallas hasn’t been very impressive the last two weeks. After scoring just 7 points against Seattle and pretty much getting rocked by the Seahawks, the Cowboys managed a mere 16-10 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on their home turf.

I like taking the Bears and the points tonight. This game is all about defense. Chicago’s defense has been tremendous this year. The Bears rank 1st in sacks and 2nd in takeaways. Dallas has a pretty solid defense themselves. With the over/under at 41.5, I think the opportunity can be taken to tease the over/under to under 48.5 to pair up with …

I went 7-2 ATS at 1:00 and 9-4 ATS after the 4:00 games. Unfortunately, my top pick at 1:00 was one of my two losses. I was high on the Falcons after they’ve dominated their first three games. I knew the Panthers would have some fight in them, but thought their defense would let them down just like the Giants game. I was forecasting a 10-14 win by the Falcons, but the Falcons barely squeaked by with the victory.

Good thing I said to hedge your bets as I recommended two teasers: Falcons/Cardinals and Falcons/Broncos, which both hit. The pundits who said take the points rather than lay the points were right and I’m glad I listened right before kickoff. Hopefully, you were also able to jump on those teasers. I also played a third teaser of Cardinals (+3)/Broncos/Packers (-0.5) at 4:00, which I also hit by the skin of my teeth thanks to a lot of luck. I got incredibly lucky hitting all three teasers as the Falcons and the Cardinals both should have lost — they both came from behind to win — but sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.

As Andy Reid always says after a disappointing loss, “we have to find a way to get better.” The home dogs have royally screwed up my head. I should have been all over the Patriots, 49ers, and Bengals this week, but I saw a home dog and avoided them like the plague — looking solely at home teams this week. If it wasn’t for a hot start for the home dogs, I would have made all of them my top plays instead of opting for the Falcons or Cardinals. My teasers bailed out my misses …

I had a fantastic Saturday in college football going 3-for-3. I was all over Brandon’s first pick of the day in Clemson (-7) over Boston College. I bet that game big as I’ve been on the Clemson bandwagon all season long. I then took those winnings and took Texas (-2) over Oklahoma State and Wisconsin (+11) over Nebraska (Brandon’s pick in the late game). Both winners. The bank roll is doing well my friend going into Sunday.

This Sunday I have plays on Falcons (-7) over Panthers, Cardinals (-6) over Dolphins, and a teaser with Vikings (+11.5)/Over 41.5. I’m hedging my bets here with the Falcons and Cardinals as there’s some chatter that the Panthers and Dolphins may cover. In the Falcons vs. Panthers game, there is of course that risk that Cam Newton goes off and makes this a tight one. This is a division game afterall. I see some merit in the argument that the Panthers (+7) looks good on paper, but I look at how dominating the Falcons have been and see nothing but liabilities on the Panthers defense. Is a 34-31 style shootout possible? Yes, but I think the Falcons win by 10-14 points here. I’ll stick with the Falcons here. Although Cam may due for a solid game, his defense will let him down once again. The Panthers D-line doesn’t generate any pressure and the Panthers secondary can’t cover. Matt Ryan is going to have a big day. Good luck trying to keep up.

Others are claiming Dolphins (+6) is the play to make here. Now I warned that I’m concerned with giving up the points with an offense that isn’t very prolific against a solid defense. However, as long …

Question:

Which 2 WRs should I start in a standard league for week 4?

Michael Crabtree @ NYJ
Marques Colston @ GB
Danny Amendola vs. SEA
Dez Bryant vs. DAL

Answer:

This is a tough question since you have some tough matchups. Despite the tough Bears matchup, you have to start Dez Bryant as he’s your top WR. You play your best player regardless of the matchup. Bryant should still perform well even against the Bears. The Cowboys are at home on Monday Night which I like.

If this was a PPR league, I say you go Amendola, but without PPR, he’s not as valuable in standard leagues. Seattle has a tough defense and he shouldn’t be getting anywhere close to that 100 YPG that he’s been averaging.

I have Michael Crabtree on my squad but haven’t started him yet. He gets a lot of targets, but he’s not going to score a whole lot of TDs. He’ll gain 60-70 receiving yards consistently each week, but won’t put up any ridiculous numbers.

In your WR2 spot, I would go with Marques Colston. If you’re leaning Amedola for your WR2, that wouldn’t be a bad option either. Good luck.…

Question:

I have the following players and am struggling to decide who to start and who to sit.

Vincent Jackson vs. WAS
Eric Decker vs. OAK
Steve Smith @ ATL
Willis McGahee vs. OAK
Cedric Benson vs. NO

I have Jackson/Decker/Benson starting for week 4 but wondering if I should make a change. Thanks!

Answer:

You have some great matchups to work with. I would go with Vincent Jackson and Eric Decker as my starting WRs since they are facing two poor defenses. Decker should have his first monster fantasy game of the season. Big Ben threw for over 300 yards on the Raiders last week since the Raiders corners are banged up. Peyton Manning will pick them apart.

If you’re deciding between Benson and McGahee at RB, I say you go Benson. McGahee has some banged up ribs and is listed as questionable so he may sit this game out or take limited snaps. Green Bay was feeding Benson the ball last week and that should continue as they’re facing the Saints, who have the worst run defense in the league and gave up over 200 yards to Jamaal Charles last week.

You got it right. Vincent Jackson, Eric Decker, and Cedric Benson are your guys for week 4.…